In Scarsdale, the Asking Price Is Where the Bidding Starts

Two numbers from the October 2026 Scarsdale market report tell very different stories. The median single-family sale price was $2.5 million, down 0.6% from October 2025. In the same month, homes sold for an average of 112% of their asking price, compared with 96% a year earlier. One of those numbers changes a lot from month to month. The other has hardly moved since summer. If you're setting a Scarsdale budget, the steady number is the one to build on.

The cost of using the wrong one is easy to put in dollars. Through August 2026, the median Scarsdale sale closed 20.1% above its original list price, as Scarsdale10583 reported from Pendulum Property Group's market analysis. At that premium, a house listed at $2.5 million sells for about $3.0 million. A buyer who sets a ceiling at the asking price, or just a little above it, can lose house after house this year without making a single mistake on paper.

The premium has held while the median moved

Compare August with October using the same tracker. Madison & Park Appraisal summarized the August figures from the William Pitt Sotheby's International Realty Scarsdale School District report, and the October edition is the latest one out.

Over two months, the median dropped by half a million dollars and went from a 32% annual gain to a slight decline. Scarsdale houses didn't lose a sixth of their value between Labor Day and Halloween. August had 31 sales and October had 8, and when a month has eight closings, the median is simply the price of whichever house landed in the middle. A couple of large homes closing in one month and not the next can swing it that much.

The over-asking figure, meanwhile, was 112% in both months, and homes went under contract in about three weeks either time. That's the number that describes what buyers are actually up against.

Bigger houses are selling, and that pushes the median up

The year-to-date median has climbed, and the reason is mostly which houses are selling. Through August, half of all Scarsdale sales were $3.0 million or more, compared with 31% in 2025. Another 27% of sales, or 39 homes, closed at $4.0 million or more. That's already more $4 million-plus sales than 2024 and 2025 had put together, which was 35. With that many high-end homes in the 2026 numbers, the median would rise even if no individual house gained a dollar in value.

Price per square foot adjusts for size, so it gives a better read on what values are doing, and it rose by less. In October 2026, the average was $709 a square foot, up 6.4% from $667 in October 2025. The August comparison was steeper, $766 against $647, which works out to an increase of about 18%. Both are single-month averages, so they swing like any small sample. Still, August's per-square-foot gain of about 18% was well below that month's 32.2% median gain, and October's 6.4% is well below the 22% year-to-date median gain. That's the pattern you'd expect when a larger share of big houses is pushing the headline number up.

None of this means prices are flat. Values are rising, and buyers are paying above asking almost across the board. The year-to-date median, which was $3.0 million through August and up 22% over the prior year, mixes real appreciation with a shift toward larger homes. It overstates how much a typical four-bedroom Colonial has gone up.

The premium comes from a shortage of listings

The over-asking pattern is easiest to understand from the supply side. At the end of August 2026, Pendulum Property Group's count showed just 10 Scarsdale homes for sale. That was the lowest month-end inventory on record, compared with 22 a year earlier and a pre-COVID average of about 137. Other trackers count inventory over the whole month and arrive at higher figures. William Pitt's October table, for example, listed 33 single-family homes. By any count, a buyer this fall has only a handful of homes to choose from.

New listings aren't catching up. In October 2026 there were 10 new single-family listings in the district, down 23.1% from a year earlier, and year-to-date sales through October came to 157, down 6.0%. The same pattern shows up across the area. Houlihan Lawrence's Q3 2026 report, covered by Scarsdale10583, had Lower Westchester sales down 10% from Q3 2025 and the median sale price up 19%. Fewer sales and higher prices together are a sign that supply is the limiting factor.

In January, Greg Menell of Pendulum Property Group gave three reasons for the shortage in his 2026 forecast for Scarsdale10583.

• About a full year of future Scarsdale sales happened early, between 2020 and 2022, when buyers left New York City.
• Owners who want to downsize have few places to go, with inventory low across Westchester and Connecticut and prices much higher in Florida.
• Many owners don't want to trade a 3% mortgage rate for a much higher one.

All three are reasons current owners stay put, and none of them is likely to change soon. That's why the premium has lasted all year.

The pressure is strongest below $3 million

The 112% average combines a range of outcomes. Through August 2026, 93% of homes listed below $3.0 million sold for more than their asking price. In 2025 the share was 74%, and in 2024 it was 72%. Menell's January forecast singled out homes listed below $2.5 million as the most in demand. He also said some higher-end sellers would try private listings first, before going on the open market.

Week to week, the local sales reports show the same thing. On September 9, Scarsdale10583 reported that five Scarsdale and Edgemont homes had sold that week, and all five closed above asking.

The premium isn't guaranteed on every listing, though. Madison & Park put it this way in its September review of the Scarsdale market:

"It does not mean every listing will clear at a fixed markup. Overpriced outliers still linger; underpriced, well-presented homes still compress DOM."

Between the two, the 93% figure and the appraisers' note give a fair picture. Below $3 million, nearly every list price this year has turned out to be a starting point for bidding. The homes that sit are the overpriced ones.

Start your budget from per-square-foot prices and recent sales

A more reliable way to set a budget starts with the house rather than the asking price. Through August 2026, the median Scarsdale sale came to $759 a square foot when basement space was included. Counting only above-ground living space, it was $919. That gap is about $160 a square foot. Before you rely on a per-square-foot figure, check which measurement it uses.

Here's the order I'd work in:

1. Check the house's square footage, both above ground and in the basement.
2. Find recent sales of comparable homes nearby and see what they sold for per square foot.
3. Look at how far over asking homes in the same price range have been selling. Below $3 million, this year's numbers point clearly in one direction.
4. Compare where you land with the asking price. If your number comes out well above it, that's common for this market in 2026. Decide your ceiling before the bidding starts.

Madison & Park makes a related point about the median. Lot size, era, condition, and location within Scarsdale all affect value, and a village-wide figure applied to a house that doesn't match it will mislead you. A gut-renovated Tudor and an original mid-century house of the same size compete for different buyers.

Timing is the other half of the plan. Average days on market in October 2026 was 20, and the best-priced homes usually go faster than that. Your financing, your attorney, and your comparable sales should be ready before the house you want is listed.

Quick answers

Is Scarsdale's median price dropping? The October 2026 median of $2.5 million was 0.6% below October 2025, from only eight sales. The year-to-date median through August was up 22%, and homes sold at 112% of asking in both August and October. With so few sales in a month, one month's median doesn't show a trend.

Does every Scarsdale home sell over asking? No, but most do below $3 million. Through August 2026, 93% of homes listed under $3.0 million sold above their asking price. Overpriced listings can still sit.

Why are there so few homes for sale? Menell's January forecast pointed to sales pulled forward in 2020 to 2022, limited downsizing options in the region and in Florida, and owners keeping low-rate mortgages. Month-end inventory fell to 10 homes in August 2026.

If you'd like help working out what a specific Scarsdale house is likely to sell for before you write an offer, Lori De La Parra can walk through the comps with you. Let's Connect.